Volkswagen Polo WRC - a Citroën DS3 killer?

It’s been rumoured for a long time and confirmed for a few months that Volkswagen will enter the WRC with a new Polo WRC in 2013. However, the team plan to make their competitive debut already in Rally Finland in the end of this month – and then compete all remaining rallies this year except for Australia. Already from day one, Volkswagen have sent the signals that this is a serious challenge (nothing else could be expected) and in my opinion this can only be seen as another sign of that, maybe the strongest so far. Considering the price of competing one and a half year in the WRC (I guess that Volkswagen will continue to run even the next season), it shows with clarity that Volkswagen is willing to invest money not only to compete but even to win the WRC.

Of course, winning is not only about the car – but also a lot about the team in terms of personnel, drivers and co-drivers. Petter Solberg is rumoured to be close to signing for the team, but so far Volkswagen seems to be using the excellent strategy of signing young, talented and local drivers – at least if judging from the Rally Finland entry. Andreas Mikkelsen of Norway will be driving one car, and I guess he will be their first driver for the rest of the season and local ace Joonas Lindroos will drive the other car. By signing Mikkelsen they get someone that can act as a young and promising second driver in the works team later on while still being experienced enough to work as a good test driver. In Lindroos they get a local driver in Finland that can contribute with unique knowledge about the local conditions.

It’s quite obvious that Volkswagen will be competing at the highest level of WRC and I expect them to enter the series on a much higher level than any other debutant teams have done in recent years. For Citroën this means a team that can really challenge them for both the drivers and the manufacturers title. It will be interesting to see their next step. Will they fight back and how? (Especially with the possibility/speculations of Loeb ending his career or moving on quite soon…)

Petter Solberg is testing his Citroen C4WRC near Torsby in Värmland today. Photo: PSWRT

Petter Solberg just updated his blog with the following quote:

- Just did the first run, and this car is just unbelieveable! It’s totally different from the car I had last year. I mean, the balance is so good and the grip is amazing. Just one thing to say now; Rally Sweden – here I come!

It’s interesting to see that Petter is so happy immediately, since it means that he maybe really have managed to get the right stuff out of the Citroën factory – something that almost no privateer has previously managed to do. Citroën have always been very keen of protecting their works drivers from concurrence by providing engine mappings and parts that has obviously been not as good as the works stuff. Ask Petter about last year, Manfred Stohl, Daniel Carlsson and many other people…

If Petter has the right stuff – he can finally become a contender again and maybe be one of the guys on top in the championship. That would be an amazing boost to the WRC. However, still that’s just dreams, but let’s hope for more good reports from Petter.

I guess that Rally Finland in the end of July/beginning of August will be very, very important for both Ford and Citroen. If Loeb can win on Hirvonen’s (and Latvala’s) home soil, Citroen will have a really good position considering that Rally Catalunya is one of the three remaining rallies after that. Loeb will of course be a huge favourite on the Spanish tarmac surface!

But if Loeb and Citroen doesn’t play their cards right in Finland, Hirvonen will extend his lead in the championship, boosting him and putting quite some pressure on Loeb. Then Loeb will have some pressure to make the odds even again by winning in Catalunya – which would leave the championship totally open again. Besides Finland and Catalunya there are Rally Australia and the season closer Wales Rally GB left on the calendar – two rallies where I don’t feel that either Loeb or Hirvonen have a real advantage. It will for sure be an interesting battle – and for the sake of thrill… Let’s hope that Hirvonen (or Latvala?) is fastest in Finland!

If Petter doesn’t get fresh parts of the Xsara the car isn’t good enough for him to be happy, and if he does get fresh parts the car+driver mix is way too good for Citroen’s taste.

As soon as Petter got his new gear in Sardinia, Loeb was forced behind Solberg in fourth place. For sure Loeb had some bad luck, but without Petter he would get six points instead of five… I’m sure the Citroen bosses are worried that Petter will steal more points from Loeb and more important from the manufacturer team later this year.

As I see it, there are two main scenarios that are really simple:

• Scenario one, Citroën accepts Petter’s speed and the fact that he may take a few points away of Loeb, Sordo and the junior team (the effect on the junior team is small, as they normally aren’t good enough to pass Petter even with his old gear) during the rest of the year. They let him have the 2006 parts, a good engine mapping and the passive differentials – that all allow him to be fast. (The parts are already given to him, and it will be hard to take them away – but Citroen are still able to give him a weaker engine mapping to make him go slower…)
• Scenario two, Citroen think they cannot afford Petter to be fast with his Xsara, and they reduce his chances of a win by not giving him any further upgrades and by making changes to his engine mapping. However, I’m sure Petter wouldn’t accept that (PSWRT and cheif engineer Fx Demaison are probably staring like eagles on the performance of the engine after the turns with Citroen), and I’m quite sure they he want to see continous progress on the car – otherwise they’ll leave Citroen for Ford or possibly even the Peugeot 307 (read more here and here).

I think the decision for scenario one or two will be done partly by Petter’s feeling in Sardinia, if he’s happy enough or not – but also by Loeb’s and Sordo’s pace in the next few rallies. If the Citroen management see Ford getting closer in the race for the manufacturers title, I’m quite sure they won’t allow Petter to continue taking points away from them. However, if Loeb remains unthreatened for the drivers title and if Citroen can keep their distance in the manufacturers championship, maybe it’s OK. Citroen have probably already got used to the fact that their juniors aren’t able to beat Petter more than on random occasions…

The future will tell…

UPDATE:
Read more (in Norweigan) about Petter’s performance in Sardinia on the following (external) links:

http://www.dagsavisen.no/sport/article417284.ece
http://www.dagbladet.no/2009/05/24/sport/motorsport/rally/rally-vm/petter_solberg/6374198/ 
http://www.vg.no/sport/motor/artikkel.php?artid=547805

Something that seems to be exciting all the time this year is the production car WRC. In Sardinia, the rally ended with Nasser al-Attiyah leading the field, taking the lead from Patrik Sandell with just 1.5 seconds on the very last stage. Annoying for Sandell, who took over the lead from his countryman Patrik Flodin on Saturday, when Flodin was hit by trouble. This means Al-Attiyah leads the championship with 31pts ahead of Araujo on 29pts and Sandell on 28pts. PWRC will be a tough battle until the end, it seems!

Other interesting things in this rally:

• Loeb is under investigation for a wheel change made on Saturday. Probably the subject of investigation is if the car was moving at any time when Loeb or Elena wasn’t seated. If so – this would be against the rules and should be punished, as with Duval in Japan a few years ago. This means, Loeb may lose his position…
• Petter Solberg caught the third place, ahead of Sordo (who retired after turbo problems) and Loeb who took the fourth place. Loeb was really happy with his new car spec after shakedown, and seemed to settle well with it during the weekend after some overheating problems on stage one. Now, the big question is what Citroen will do… I’ll make a separate post about that since it’s really an interesting question.
• Despite having ran Cyprus a few months ago, Sardinia seems to be the most car-breaking even of the season so far… (Henning, Rautenbach, Sordo, Ogier, Loeb’s puncture, Petter’s  [and all the others'] overheating)

Also, I want to post a short excuse on the lack of posts here the last few weeks. A lot of things to do at work, including some travel, is why. Actually I’m currently writing from my hotel room in Las Vegas, where I’m staying until tuesday. From Thursday on I’m back home so stay tuned!

The common works squad will be competing and Citroen Junior Team arrives with full crew, including Rautenbach, Novikov and Ogier – but without Atkinson. The later one of them has financial problems making him stay away from the wheel until the situation changes. Khalid Al-Qassimi is back for his second WRC start of the year in his BP Ford Abu Dhabi entered Ford Focus WRC, but most important is probably that Federico Villagra will do Munchis WRTs first WRC start of the year in a Ford Focus WRC. Munchis is registered as a manufacturer this year, following a change of rules allowing for manufacturers teams consisting of only one car. Stobart lines up Henning Solberg and Matthew Wilson – making the Ford guys a solid 50% of the A8 class. I saw someone talking about a manufacturers championship where all cars of a given brand would score manufacturers points – like in the IRC. This is a perfect example of why that’s a bad idea for the WRC!

Petter Solberg’s entry, given the Xsara a second chance, is interesting. As I’ve already ruled out, I think sticking to the Xsara in Cyprus is wise by Petter. People have asked why I didn’t predict Petter higher in Norway (see my prediction here) – and that’s just because the Xsara isn’t good enough, especially not since I know Citroen would never release it with it’s full engine capacity. But Cyprus is different. It’s a really, really rough rally where consistency counts – not speed. That opens up for Petter, and since the Xsara is known to be quite consistent I guess Petter can do good. If he manages to stay on the road without major problems, I think he’ll be in the top five or maybe four – you just need to get through the rally to get quite high. But honestly, after Cyprus I’d switch no matter what – because Citroen will neeeever give out a really good spec.

Read the entrylist (PDF): 
http://www.cyprusrally.com.cy/documents/entry_list.pdf

In January this year, the European Union (EU) decided to put a few new names to their list of people in Zimbabwe imposed with sanctions from the union. One of them was Muller Conrad Rautenbach, more known as Billy Rautenbach, and father of the current WRC driver Conrad Rautenbach (actually Billy Rautenbach took part in some rallies himself in the 80′s). The sanction list was initially created in 2002, intended to weaken the Mugabe regime and his Zanu-PF party by travel bans and freezing economic resources of members and financers of the regime. In a statement, EU says that the measures against the people on their list is the result of “the break down of the rule of law and human rights abuses”.

A similar list is maintained in the US by the US Department of the Treasury, a list to which Billy Rautenbach was added in November 2008. US Treasure states that Rautenbach “has provided support to senior regime officials during Zimbabwe’s intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo and also provided logistical support for large-scale mining projects in Zimbabwe that benefit a small number of corrupt officials there”. The authority further says that “The Mugabe regime continues to resist the call of the Zimbabwean people to loosen its corrupt and violent hold on power”.

So, what’s behind all this?

After some basic research you can find out that Billy Rautenbach lived in South Africa until the end of the 90′s. He was a quite successful businessman running the Hyundai dealer, having exclusive deals for selling Volvo and Saab in sub-Sahara and the continent’s biggest transportation company – Wheels of Africa. He was also involved in the selling of Jas-Gripen, a Swedish made military jet plane, to the South African government. But something went wrong, Hyundai went into trouble – and so did Rautenbach. He got accused for a list of different crimes, got into the list of 20 most wanted criminals in South Africa and was investigated for briberies – but seemed to have good cover. In one case Billy Rautenbach’s lawyer met up with Thabo Mbeki’s (South African president) Commissioner of Police and gave him 40 000 USD to have the corruption charges against Rautenbach dropped – an offer the comissioner accepted. Mbeki also sacked the National Prosecution Authority boss and arrested a policeman investigating the case with the commissioner’s bribe on charges of “perverting the course of justice to protect Billy Rautenbach against investigations.

However, reading on UNHCR’s website Refworld – intended as a tool for refugee decision support – you can see that Rautenbach gave up and fled South Africa to a farm outside Harare (in Zimbabwe) in 1999, because of the accusations against him, including theft, bribery and fraud. He was described in 2002 by the UN Panel of Experts on the Illegal Exploitation of Natural Resources and Other Forms of Wealth of the Democratic Republic of Kongo as a man “whose personal and professional integrity is doubtful”, after a two years as manager of Congo’s state-owned mining company, Gecamines – appointed as a thank for Zimbabwe’s military support going into the Second Congo War. However, in 2000 Rautenbach was replaced in the role as managing director – after a report that a network of prominent people had transferred assets worth at least 5 billion USD from the state-mining company to private companies. Billy Rautenbach was named as one of the plunderers in the report, but he denied and made a statement that the accusations were totally unfounded. No matter what, Billy Rautenbach have been pronounced persona non grata (not wanted person) in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

What does this have to do with Conrad Rautenbach’s WRC drive?

I don’t know who’s paying for Conrad Rautenbach’s WRC drive, but I think it’s easy to suspect that the money going into Citroen from him doesn’t have the brightest history. I’ve not seen any major sponsors behind his drive, and a simple guess is that money from his fathers empire pay for his drive. To know what’s true and what’s false regarding Billy Rautenbach is really hard, but it’s easy to see that his business is really dubious. His involvement in war’s and corruption seems quite evident and considering he’s on both EU’s and US Treasure’s lists of sanctions – it’s certain that he even now may have a role as financer for the undemocratic regime in Zimbabwe.

All this makes me suspect that the money backing Conrad Rautenbach’s WRC operation has been indirectly stolen from the African people by corrupted transfers initiated by undemocratic forces. And worst of all it makes me suspect that Conrad’s financer have also been financing parts of the worst war in modern African history, killing 5.4 million people. I don’t judge Conrad Rautenbach – he is just his father’s son and can’t do much about it – and I don’t even know if his father really is paying the drive. But if Citroen has any interest in human rights, my opinion is that Citroen should deeply investigate where the money that pays Conrad’s WRC season comes from and verify that those money have other sources than Conrad’s father’s dubious business. Just suspicions regarding this type of things is a shame to the championship and the sport.

Here is the list of people imposed by EU’s sanctions against Zimbabwe:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:023:0043:0059:EN:PDF

Here is US Treasury’s summary of the sanctions concerning Zimbabwe:
http://www.treas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/programs/zimbabwe/zimb.shtml

If you want to read more on the subject, here are more information sources:

UNHCR RefWorld – Robert Mugabe’s money men
Position of the European Union on sanctions against Zimbabwe
European Parliament resolution on human rights in Zimbabwe
Daily Telegraph – Business and morality – Is Phil Edmonds right to trade with Robert Mugabe?
SW Radio Africa – The web of corrupt Practice and Politics in the region
AfDevInfo on Billy Rautenbach
MNET – Crook or crucified
Wikipedia, Second Congo War

Myself, I don’t know if it’s crazy but as long as it’s not unsafe and the same for everybody – why not try? What I really do know is that I like brining new ideas into the championship, like mixing two surfaces in the same rally – and I do know adding new spectacular things, like cars going really wide because of wrong and worn tyres. As far as it can be safely done, let’s do it. I don’t get why Citroen are crying before even trying? Especially not since they are, from what I know, the only manufacturer that have done testing before the event with the wrong tyre-combination.

Let’s just hope it doesn’t end up like Cyprus two years ago, when their largely promoted town-stage had to be cancelled because of safety issues.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Thanks to StormcastProductions.

Now, it has taken some time since the decision in December, and I know that FIA have recieved critism – which makes sense – for taking too much time before a final decision is made. Manufacturers have to decide regarding their involvement in the WRC and then develop the car and package needed to compete. You can’t expect it to take just a few monts – since we of course want highly dedicated manufacturers that all keep a high level close to each other.

So now, it seems like FIA may change their previous decision – and there are a few possible ways to go. One is to allow for the old-fashioned WRC cars in the championship even in 2010. But then, they wouldn’t back on Super2000+ – instead they seem to want to make it a combo. This was also indicated when WRC.com made their roundup of rule changes going into the 2009 season, as they wrote the following:

“The World Rally Car era is coming to an end. This season will be the last that this type of vehicle will compete alone at the top level of the sport. 2010 will be a transitional season when a new specification of World Rally Car, based on a Super 2000 vehicle, will compete alongside the existing machinery. From 2011, however, the Super 2000 based model will take over completely.”

Another option is to go for the common Super2000 from next year, without the additional expenses of the Super2000+ package. In a recent interview in Autosport Max Mosley admits that the Subaru and Suzuki redrawals from the WRC may have caused people to change their opinions on wether the plus package should be introduced or not – despite the fact that the WMSC explicitly decided not to go on with the plain Super2000 spec in December. He opens for the possibility to go for a pure Super2000 specification without an additional package.

My opinion is that keeping the WRC cars in 2010 would be tough. They have a better performance than Super2000+ cars – and who would like to run a car doomed to lose? Also, it could cause even the Super2000+ cars to be overdeveloped and expensive, in the crazy chase for milliseconds that costs so much money in today’s WRC. I don’t know how it could be done smoothly – but I’ve also heard indications that Citroen, one of the championship’s most loyal manufacturers – expect to run the 2010 WRC with their C4WRC, so FIA may be in a difficult situation.

To me it makes most sense to skip the plus package on the Super2000 cars and make it a pure and really cheap formula that would probably attract quite a few manufacturers already from the beginning. Citroen would hopefully accept that – even since they don’t expect to take their Super2000(+) car into competition until 2011. Regarding the fans, I’m convinced that people’s interest and heart in the sport doesn’t come from – or depend on – a few horsepowers or km’s more or less – or the turbo. It depends on sideways action, nice sound and the fights between the best drivers on demanding surfaces – and that’s not a problem with Super2000. What we really need that we will also get (at least closer to) with Super2000 is a lot of manufacturers all on a good level that keeps the competition on top – and the end of the era where Citroen and Loeb can win everything almost without resistance.

Note: The next World Motorsport Council meeting, deciding about the 2010 technical regulations, will be held in March.

Petter Solberg's car during service in Vikingskipet. Photo: pettersolberg.com

Petter Solberg ended up sixth in Rally Norway. Many people think it’s bad, and compared to what Petter was expected to do by most people I must agree. But was those expectations realistic? No.

I predicted Petter to be in the top ten and maybe score some points, which is exactly what he did – sixth place gives him two drivers points. He couldn’t do much more, that is – and was – obvious. He has got an old car, I’m sure his engine mapping is a little bit downgraded by Citroen to not allow him to be able to beat their works drivers, etc. etc. I told it all a while ago in a post here on the blog (see this link). I also told it was the best strategy, because then he could do the showoff, blame the car, and then go on with more important stuff – like the future.

That’s exactly what happens now. After Rally Norway, Petter told that the car wasn’t fresh – rather half-tired – and publically admitted that a Ford switch were possible. However, he had a meeting with Citroen on Sunday evening. The result of the meeting was, according to Petter himself, that he will continue with the Citroen in Cyprus. Citroen has promised to basically go through the whole car and also get to grips with the engine troubles haunting Petter in Norway.

So, how smart is that? Quite smart, if you ask me. I still don’t believe that you can get top material from Citroen as a privateer if it doesn’t benefit the current needs of Citroen (like Duval in Germany 2007). But, that doesn’t matter that much in Cyprus. The Cyprus Rally is a very, very demanding event with really slow average speeds – where consistency and reliability is everything. If you keep on the road with a car in one part – you’ve came a long way. And that’s where the Xsara is best. It has always been consistent and reliable, giving the drivers a very high percentage of finishes – as long as they stay on the road.

This means, Petter could well take his time to see what Citroen gives him for Cyprus, try it out – and then make a decision. He wont lose on doing it – rather win. But then – after Cyprus – I think his best choice (if he wants to get good results) is Ford.

Check out a video here:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here is the full history of Petter’s car:

• Built with chassi # T412 and reg plates 32 CSP 92 in 26/3 2001
• 2001 wins Tour de Corse driven by Jesus Puras (first ever Xsara victory)
• 2001 registered as 723 CZM 78
• 2002 2nd in Rally Monte Carlo driven by Sebastien Loeb
• 2002 retired after accident in Rally Catalunya driven by Sebastien Loeb
• 2003 wins Rally Monte Carlo driven by Sebastien Loeb
• 2003 retired with engine failure from Acropolis Rally driven by Sebastien Loeb
• 2003 wins Rallye San Remo driven by Sebastien Loeb
• 2004 placed in Citroen’s museum called “Le Conservatoire”
• 2004 wins Cyprus Rally driven by Sebastien Loeb
• 2005 Tarmac test with Manfred Stohl in France
• 2005 ran by Kronos Racing registered as 322 DFQ 78
• 2005 6th in Rally Monte Carlo driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 9th in Rally New Zeeland driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 9th in Rally Italia Sardinia driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 Gravel tests with Manfred Stohl in Spain 
• 2005 2nd in Cyprus Rally driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 20th in Acropolis Rally driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 8th in Rally Argentina driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 Retired with steering failure in Rally Finland driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 Retired after accident in Rallye Deutschland driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2005 5th in Wales Rally GB driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2007 ran by Kronos Racing registered as 98 DZF 78
• 2007 6th in Corona Rally Mexico driven by Manfred Stohl 
• 2007 8th in Rally Argentina driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2007 12th in Rally New Zeeland driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2007 Retired with mechanical problems from Tour de Corse driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2007 6th in Rally Japan driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2007 8th in Wales Rally GB driven by Manfred Stohl
• 2008 registered as 875 EHW 78
• 2008 16th in Swedish Rally driven by Conrad Rautenbach
• 2008 driven by Felice Re in Italy registered as 14R 0101
• 2008 driven by Kris Meeke in Bettega Memorial
• 2009 driven by Conrad Rautenbach in Galway International Rally registered as 138 EQY 78

Facts source: WRCNotes.ru. Thanks to site owner Alex Sergeev!

- There are still some issues to sort out regarding which car I will be driving this season, but a decision will be made during next weekend.
Petter S.

So, finally we know when a decision will come – and this time the date is confirmed by Petter himself. Speculation has been running high for a while, with Citroen and Ford mentioned as marques – but lately even a Proton development/test role has been mentioned as an alternative, following Petter’s meeting with the Proton management.

In this video you can see an interview, the test with and even Atkinson taking notes for the test:

Click here to view the embedded video.

Atkinson himself, who has previously spent all his WRC career in a Subaru, was really impressed by the Citroen. We’ve heard it before regarding both the C4 and the Xsara, that you can attack hard into turns and still have very good control and balance of the car – facts that Atkinson immediately agreed on and told the journalists.

Looking forward to Ireland, Atkinson is probably happy to have done a full day of testing on roads that he thought were representative of the roads back in Ireland. The last time he went out of a rally car before that was in Wales, were he crashed badly and was transfered by helicopter to hospital – luckily unhurt though. Anyway, it must have been a psychological relief for him to manage to do some good testing between the accident and the rally – especially considering what happened with Subaru and that he’s now getting into a totally new car for him. After all the years struggling in problematic Subaru, it will also be really, really interesting to all of us to see how Atkinson can perform in Citroen.

Finally, just as a parenthesis, I think it seems more and more obvious that Atkinson is not planning to do just one rally in Citroen. Considering the fact that he’s launching a new website soon, he has started a Citroen branded YouTube user, he promotes the Australian Citroen dealer in his YouTube movie and other things – it seems unlikely he would do everything just because of a one-time rally. If he’s not doing a full season (except Norway) in the C4 – I at least expect that all rallies he manages to start in this season will be in the Citroen.

This nice video by Enda Healy shows a few of the rounds done by Daniel Sordo in the test:

Click here to view the embedded video.

The story goes on….

Now it seems to be true. Sources claim that Atkinson will do no less than 9 rallies in the C4WRC – a deal that is rumoured to be complete. However, with nine rallies already set I would almost be surprised if Atkinson didn’t manage to get together a deal for all twelve rallies in the season.

Let’s wait and see…

What’s quite interesting is that Henning Solberg, who announced a his deal with the Ford boss Malcolm Wilson just a few days ago, is not nominated as a points scorer for Stobart in the rally. Instead, Matthew Wilson is nominated (as usual) and Aava. That’s strange, considering the fact that Henning presented his deal as a really good one including a lot of testing and highest priority in the Stobart team. The later is now very unlikely to be true, as I’m sure Wilson Sr (Malcolm, team boss) will put his focus on the drivers that scores points for the team. Of course, Henning will probably be nominated in rallies later – for sure in Norway – but it’s still not good for him to be set aside for a young driver as Aava.

Other things to note is that Khalid Al-Quassimi, as expected, drives a third works Ford and that Chris Atkinson has been nominated along with reigning junior champion Sebastien Ogier to score points for the Citroen team. That means that the Citroen bosses sets mediocre-driving-but-well-paying Conrad Rautenbach aside, which is probably a good decision for both the team and the sport.